A global study led by CUHK and the University of Calgary charts four-stage evolution of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

HONG KONG,May 1, 2025/PRNewswire/ -- An international consortium led by TheChinese University of Hong Kong(CUHK)'s Faculty of Medicine (CU Medicine) and theUniversity of CalgaryinCanadahas conducted a global epidemiological study on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). It found that this chronic gut condition follows a four-stage epidemiological evolution across different regions of the world. Analysing data from more than 500 epidemiological studies across 80 regions in the past century, the team generated a machine-learning model for classification of stages which enables health-care systems to prepare for the growing burden on healthcare arising from the prevalence of IBD. Results of the study have been published in the leading scientific journalNature.   

Epidemiological model informs trend of IBD burden for the next 20 years

The Global IBD Visualization of Epidemiology Studies in the 21st Century (GIVES‑21) consortium, led byProfessor Gilaad KaplanofUniversity of CalgaryandProfessorSiew Ngof CU Medicine, synthesised data from 522 population-based studies across 82 geographical regions over the past century. They observed differences in IBD incidence and prevalence across various geographical areas over the past century suggest that epidemiological patterns shift through time.

To further explore the trends and characterise the epidemiology of IBD independent of geography and time, researchers developed a machine-learning model that classifies regions by epidemiologic stage, maps spatiotemporal transitions across stages and models a theoretical prevalence stage for the next two decades. They also demonstrated a stage where IBD prevalence reaches equilibrium. (Please refer toTable 1 for details.)

Professor Gilaad Kaplan, Professor of Medicine at the Cumming School of Medicine, theUniversity of Calgary, said:"Our analysis, drawing on a century's worth of historical epidemiologic data, enables health authorities to tailor interventions – whether clinical, policy driven or preventive." 

Incidence rapidly rising inChinaandMalaysiawhileJapanandSouth Koreaseeinganacceleration in prevalence

Study data showed epidemiological stages vary among regions inAsia.JapanandSouth Korea, which underwent rapid industrialisation in the latter half of the 20^thcentury, have reported prevalence exceeding 0.1%, placing them on the brink of transitioning towards stage 3. In contrast, nations likeChinaandMalaysia, which industrialised later, entered stage 2 more recently.

DrJoyce Mak, Honorary Clinical Associate Professor in the Department of Medicine and Therapeutics at CU Medicine, said:"Today, we stand at a critical juncture as we address the alarming rise in IBD in newly industrialised countries such asChinaandMalaysia. This increase is not just a statistic; it represents the health and well-being of millions of people. As these nations embrace rapid industrialisation and urbanisation, we must prioritise public health initiatives, enhance awareness, and invest in research to understand underlying causes of this disease."

ProfessorSiew Ng, Croucher Professor in Medical Sciences at CU Medicine, Director of the Microbiota I-Center (MagIC) and New Cornerstone Investigator, said:"Our GIVES‑21 consortium is conducting epidemiologic surveillance studies in low- and middle-income countries, as the disease is evolving in these regions. We are seeing a paradigm shift of IBD accelerating in these regions and we will need to prepare our clinical infrastructure and personnel to manage this complex and costly disease. We are planning research to focus on preventive strategies targeting the gut microbiome, diet and environmental exposures to reduce disease incidence."

This study was supported by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust, the International Organization for the study of IBD (IOIBD), and contributions from over 30 international partners.

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SOURCE The Faculty of Medicine of TheChinese University of Hong Kong